Many visitors to the blog were offended by my posting of commentary on the national issues, so I’ve taken a break and let the dust settle on it’s own. For the past two weeks, it’s been looking more and more like a done deal for Obama, and on his coattails a preservation of the Democratic majority in the Senate. If you doubt that, consider why Gov Chris Christie recently moved closer to the Obama Camp. He knows the benefits of hitching his horse to the winning wagon.
I suppose anything can happen, and the media on both sides have been churning this as a close race, but the polls of the polls – five-thirty-eight and Real Clear Politics among others – have had the real story for some time. The national polls have been a red-herring. They are are measuring how the candidates are doing in an irrelevant contest. The electoral college contest, the one they are actually working to win, has been tilting Obama for quite some time.
The poll aggregators use statistical methods to combine individual polls, and by doing so increase the sample size and reduce the margin of error. Also, the five-thirty-eight model applies measures to weight the various polls by their historical accuracy, reducing the influence of statistical bias.
As one of the very few states that are actually in play, we here in New Hampshire probably get the sense that the democratic process is alive and well in America. I don’t believe that’s the case. The vast majority of the country has been sidelined and ignored by the process. Many of us who are sick of the unrelenting attack ads probably wish we were ignored too, but I can tell you that you would be spared only the presidential brawl. We just got back from a couple of days in Chicago and the negative TV adds for their state and local elections are just as bad.
After tomorrow, this will all be behind us, and I’ll start back in on what you all came here to read about.